Golden Globes 2016: who will win, and who should win the TV categories

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The Golden Globes are unlike any other awards for so many different reasons, not all of which have to do with the amount of booze they serve the stars in attendance. They’re one of the few to combine both movies and television and, most crucially, they have the smallest pool of people nominating and choosing the awards. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is a tiny group of very influential people and they love nothing more than starting a trend or anointing strange favourites, especially in the television categories.

Just look at last year’s winners. The Globes were the first to jump on the Transparent bandwagon, awarding trophies to both the show and Jeffrey Tambor – a feat the show repeated at the Emmys. But then there are winners like The Affair and Gina Rodriguez, the star of Jane the Virgin, both of which failed to get nominations at the Emmys. The Globes likes what it likes and should be commended for awarding under-the-radar shows and performances but can’t be taken too seriously when their criteria for quality often seem so arbitrary.

So when it comes to guessing the winners for Sunday’s ceremony it’s an especially dodgy enterprise, but I’m going to give it a shot anyway. Like most years, I’ll probably be entirely wrong.

Best drama

Every year the HFPA nominates one show that is a total head-scratcher, and that show usually goes on to win. This year that nominee is Starz’s Outlander, a drama about a woman who ends up getting sucked back in time to the Scottish highlands of the 16th century. Just because it’s such an odd choice, I think it’s bound to win.

The best show of the bunch is Mr Robot, which still has a chance given that it hasn’t been eligible for the Emmys yet and the Globes does love to set a precedent for great, edgy shows like this outstanding hacker drama. They could also decide to give the Emmys the middle finger by awarding it to Empire, but the show’s second season has been decidedly mediocre. Game of Thrones only scored one nomination so it’s dead in the water, but Narcos still has a slim shot.

Will win: Outlander. Should win: Mr Robot

Best actor in a drama

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USA Network

I think this is Rami Malek’s race to lose, and his turn as an emotionally damaged hacker on Mr Robot was one of the breakout performances of last year, something the Globes adores rewarding. Wagner Moura had the same kind of performance on Narcos playing Pablo Escobar, so if there is a spoiler, I’d give it to either him or Bob Odenkirk, who was also great on Better Call Saul. Liev Schreiber gets nominated every year for Ray Donovan and never wins and the Globes has never shared the Emmys’ enthusiasm for Mad Men, which is a bad sign for Jon Hamm.

Will win: Rami Malek. Should win: Rami Malek

Best supporting actor

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USA Network

This category is full of the shows that the Globes have shown us they really, really like this year, with nominees from Mr Robot (Christian Slater), Outlander (Tobias Menzies) and Wolf Hall (Damian Lewis) all vying for the trophy. I would say that Slater has the best shot, but Lewis could score if Wolf Hall is shut out elsewhere. The Globes love to spread the love around rather than reward one show too much. And poor Alan Cumming, nominated every year for The Good Wife but never managing to win. Sadly, I don’t think this is the year.

Will win: Christian Slater. Should win: Christian Slater